Explore Futures.
Test Decisions.
Anticipate Outcomes.

Explore scenarios through interactive exercises. Test decisions against how key actors will respond. Anticipate outcomes with rigorous probability and risk assessments.

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Seiðr Engine
01 · Probabilistic forecasting Automated

Simulation Engine

Model how a scenario unfolds and receive scored probabilities across competing outcomes.

  1. 1

    Frame the question

    Define the actors, horizon, and competing outcomes to weigh.

  2. 2

    Value the variables

    Open-source evidence first; each variable scored against what's observed.

  3. 3

    Run the model

    Quantitative & qualitative variables simulated across many runs.

OutputA scored probability distribution with indicators & warnings.
Run a Simulation →
02 · Threat & opportunity analysis Automated

Risk Assessment

A structured read on exposure — where risks concentrate, how severe they are, and what can be done.

  1. 1

    Scope the exposure

    Define the asset, actor, or decision under assessment.

  2. 2

    Map threats & opportunities

    Every finding tied to evidence — downside risk and upside alike.

  3. 3

    Score severity × likelihood

    Composite scoring across the full risk landscape.

OutputComposite risk & opportunity scores with ranked mitigation pathways.
Build an Assessment →
03 · Turn-based strategic play Live

Interactive Simulations

A turn-by-turn environment for contested decisions — war, diplomacy, negotiation, and trade.

  1. 1

    Set up cells & roles

    Assign human and AI teams, then brief the live scenario.

  2. 2

    Teams decide each turn

    Free-text decisions are submitted to the director.

  3. 3

    Engine adjudicates & injects

    Moves resolve; fresh intel and events drive the next turn.

↻ Turn loop repeats
OutputAn after-action report: decision trail, turning points & lessons.
Enter the Theatre →
Engagement Models
Self-Serve
Platform

Run automated forecasts and risk assessments directly in the platform.

  • Simulation Engine
  • Risk Assessment
  • Scenario library access
  • Export & share reports
Start a Simulation
Bespoke
Analyst-led

Dedicated analysts model your scenarios with custom variables and briefings.

  • Dedicated analyst team
  • Custom scenarios & variables
  • Briefings & written reports
  • Priority turnaround
Contact Us
Join a Live Session
Join an Active Session

Enter your session code

Players join an existing interactive simulation with the six-character code issued by the director. Codes are case-insensitive and expire at session end.

Session Code
Awaiting six-character code.

Simulation Library

Selected Case Studies
Simulation EngineCompleted

Strait of Hormuz — Transit Disruption

Probability distribution for chokepoint disruption under escalating fast-attack and standoff-weapon pressure.

Horizon
90 days
P(disruption)
31%
Drivers
14
Confidence
Moderate
Risk AssessmentCompleted

Baltic — Subsea Infrastructure

Threat and opportunity mapping for undersea cables and pipelines across the Baltic basin.

Composite
Elevated
Severity
7.4 / 10
Findings
23
Mitigations
11
InteractiveCompleted

South China Sea — Quarantine Crisis

Turn-based crisis wargame: coast-guard quarantine, escalation management, and coalition response.

Format
Turn-based
Turns
14
Cells
5
Outcome
De-escalation

The Seiðr Engine

Method
Grounded in scientific method.

The Seiðr engine applies established scientific methods to strategic problems, integrating quantitative and qualitative variables into a rigorous analytical framework.

Findings are scored, traceable, and tied to observed evidence — whether forecasting an outcome, mapping a risk landscape, or adjudicating a move in play.

Who It's For

Built for Decision-Makers
Government & Defense

Force posture, escalation pathways, and contingency planning under uncertainty.

Policy & Diplomacy

Sanctions design, negotiation strategy, and crisis-response rehearsal.

Investors & Industry

Geopolitical risk to assets, supply chains, energy, and markets.

Research & Education

Structured wargaming and forecasting for analysis and teaching.

FAQ

Common Questions
Is this real-time intelligence?
No. Seiðr produces analytical simulations and forecasts derived from open-source evidence. Outputs are estimative and illustrative — they are not real-time operational intelligence.
How accurate are the forecasts?
Outputs are scored probabilities expressed in calibrated, hedged language. Nothing is asserted with certainty, and calibration is tracked over time rather than claimed.
Where does the data come from?
Open-source evidence is gathered first, and every finding is valued against what is observed and traceable to its sources.
Can it run my own scenario?
Yes. Define the actors, horizon, and question; bespoke engagements support custom variables and analyst-led modelling.
How is confidentiality handled?
Engagements can run in private organisation workspaces. Contact us for specifics on data handling and retention for your use case.
Do I need to be an analyst to use it?
No. The automated services are guided end to end, and interactive sessions are director-led.

Put a scenario to the test.

Run a probabilistic forecast, build a risk assessment, or play a live turn-based simulation — scored, traceable, and tied to the evidence.